Methodology and Evidence Levels

Five levels that must not be confused

1. Measured or observed. A value from a measurement, mission or primary publication, with context and uncertainty.
2. Demonstrated or qualified. A function tested in a defined environment or at a defined scale. A terrestrial, orbital or Martian demonstration does not automatically prove the same performance at another scale.
3. Standard or physical relationship. An equation, constant, convention or documented requirement used as a calculation basis.
4. Engineering extrapolation. A reasoned application of known results to a future architecture, with assumptions, margins and dependencies made explicit.
5. Delta-Sierra prospective scenario. A proposed system or organisation used to explore a solution without presenting it as an official or already demonstrated architecture.

Verification rules

• prefer agencies, standards, scientific papers and primary technical documents;
• date information that can change;
• separate input value, assumption, calculation and result;
• make derived calculations reproducible where possible;
• state scale limits, dependencies and degraded modes;
• never present a conceptual illustration as documentary evidence.

Why this distinction matters on Mars

A Martian settlement combines domains with very different maturity levels. Orbital mechanics can be firmly established while autonomous industry, medicine without evacuation and a pressurised city remain prospective. Readers should be able to see which level a claim belongs to without losing technical depth.

Verification tools

Official resources and missions · Glossary · Reproducible calculators · Topics index