Multi-year fiscal simulator: how far can levies fall without recreating a deficit?
A transparent path that separates the 2025 baseline from future assumptions and applies a funding lock year by year.
New consolidation layer
A model designed to expose the financing constraint
This simulator extends the static 30% test into a year-by-year path. It starts from the 2025 national-accounts baseline and lets the reader choose the path. It does not forecast growth, inflation or tax elasticities.
Choose the scenario inputs
Every future-year number depends on the selected scenario inputs. None is presented as an official forecast.
Year-by-year mechanical path
| Year | GDP bn€ | Planned levies | Savings bn€ | Revenue bn€ | Spending bn€ | Balance bn€ | Balanced levy floor | Debt bn€ | Debt/GDP |
|---|
What the model calculates — and what it refuses to claim
The pre-policy spending share and non-levy revenue share are held mechanically at their 2025 ratios. Savings, transition costs and additional recurring gains are layered separately. The levy path is linear only to make the scenario transparent and can be changed with the controls.
The structural balance is deliberately absent from this table. It will only be merged once the AMECO UBLGAPS vintage import is directly verified. Statistical revisions will then remain distinct from values available in real time.
Official sources
Upstream evidence data
The simulator should progressively accept only lines that have passed the evidence gates. The baselines, years and primary sources register documents that step before any scenario injection.
— monetary pass over the 58 references
— Budgetability filter
The second pass now keeps €54.950–81.950bn of productivity gains outside the future budget total until a real cost disappears, and isolates the major business-aid, tax-control-revenue and social-support envelopes before any addition.