PUBLIC FINANCE · BUDGETABILITY ·
58 references: what can actually become a budget flow
reduced the historical references to a mechanical pool of €136.777–206.270bn. This second pass asks a stricter question: even if a figure exists, is it of a nature that can enter a budget?
The answer is that €54.950–81.950bn consists of productivity or automation references not yet translated into removed costs. They now sit in a separate reserve with an immediate budget booking of €0.
First gate: €54.950–81.950bn of productivity moves outside the budget total
Eight references — 2.04, 2.07, 4.02, 4.03, 4.04, 4.06, 5.02 and 9.07 — historically total €54.950–81.950bn. They describe simplification, digitisation, automation or time savings. That potential may be economically valuable, but it cannot finance a tax cut until it becomes a position not replaced, a contract cancelled, an avoided expense or an appropriation actually reduced.
Measure 9.07, which claimed €30–46bn from automating 521,000 positions, is therefore treated as a capacity hypothesis owned by canonical measure 2.09. Future costing must restart from positions actually not replaced, their full cost, the retirement timetable and digital transition costs.
Second gate: isolate the three mega-envelopes that distort any addition
Three blocks dominate the remaining references. Measure 8.07 carries €30–50bn of large-company aid, but the public source does not isolate that amount cleanly and the envelope overlaps tax support already treated elsewhere. It is therefore an umbrella envelope: zero autonomous addition until decomposed aid by aid.
Measure 9.06 carries €15–25bn of potential tax-control revenue and is transferred to owner 6.09; it remains a revenue reserve, not a spending saving. Measures 11.01 and 11.04 together carry €11–16bn of historical social references but require benefit-by-benefit netting. For 11.01, the Plan's detailed section itself gives only €0.65–1.3bn before in-kind compensation, contradicting the €5–8bn index; that conflict remains visible and blocks addition.
Once those three mega-envelopes are set aside, the working pool is €25.827–33.320bn. It is still not a saving: it consists of the 2026 gross R&D tax-credit reference, a motorway scenario and 32 smaller residual references.
Breakdown of the new working pool
| Block | Reference | Booked now | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity gains kept outside the budget total 2.04, 2.07, 4.02, 4.03, 4.04, 4.06, 5.02, 9.07 | €54.950–€81.950bn | 0 | No euro is booked until a post, contract, appropriation or recruitment actually disappears. Measure 9.07 is owned by 2.09 and must be rebuilt from positions actually not replaced. |
| Large-company aid umbrella 8.07 | €30.000–€50.000bn | 0 | 8.07 is treated as an umbrella envelope, not an additive line. It must be decomposed aid by aid to avoid recounting R&D tax credits, tax expenditures, exemptions or grants already captured elsewhere. |
| Tax-control revenue reserve 9.06 | €15.000–€25.000bn | 0 | 9.06 is transferred to 6.09. The historical €15–25bn reference becomes revenue only after evidence of additional net cash collection; it is not an expenditure saving. |
| Social package to be calculated net 11.01, 11.04 | €11.000–€16.000bn | 0 | 11.01 and 11.04 cannot be added before a benefit-by-benefit split. For 11.01, the historical €5–8bn index conflicts with the detailed €0.65–1.3bn section before in-kind support; the detailed figure is the prudential reference signal, but still not a net saving. |
| R&D tax credit: current gross reference 6.06, 6.07 | €8.041–€8.041bn | 0 | €8.041bn is the 2026 gross tax-expenditure reference used by current policy. It stays outside the net total until accrued credits, behaviour and any strategic direct funding are modelled. |
| Motorways: scenario envelope 7.08, 7.09 | €1.200–€4.000bn | 0 | €1.2–4bn is a choice envelope between scenarios, never the sum of 7.08 and 7.09. The selected scenario must then be dated and calculated as net cash. |
| Residual references for cluster-by-cluster audit 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 1.15, 1.16, 1.17, 1.18, 1.19, 1.20, 3.05, 3.11, 3.13, 3.14, 3.17, 5.01, 5.03, 5.05, 6.12, 11.06, 11.07, 11.08, 12.02 | €16.586–€21.279bn | 0 | This remainder is smaller but still uncertified: institutions, operators, hospitals, procurement, union financing, special schemes and other lines still need to be reduced to actually removed costs or collectible net revenue. |
What €25.827–33.320bn means — and what it does not mean
After productivity and the three mega-envelopes are set aside, the working remainder is exactly: €8.041bn gross R&D tax credit + €1.2–4bn motorway scenario + €16.586–21.279bn of smaller residual references. None of those three blocks is yet certified net.
This step therefore reduces accounting illusion: the largest historical figures can no longer silently inflate the future total. They remain documented, but each now sits in the channel matching its economic nature.
Next step: audit the 32 residual references
The next pass will treat the €16.586–21.279bn residual pool by packages: procurement, hospitals, operators, institutions and pay, union financing, special schemes and other lines. Each package must eventually produce a net annual flow, full-effect year, transition cost and evidence of removed expenditure or collectible revenue.