PUBLIC FINANCE · 30% TARGET ·

Fiscal reform simulator: how low can France go without recreating deficits?

A public engine to test the 30% target, realised savings, the deficit, transition costs and proven recurring gains.

A simulator that rejects unfunded promises

The 30% target is treated as a conditional destination, never as a number to be reached through borrowing. The baseline uses 2025 GDP of €2,991.1bn, compulsory levies at 43.6% of GDP and a €152.5bn public deficit.

Core rule: ordinary structural deficits must be eliminated first. A permanent tax cut can only activate when recurring financing is actually demonstrated.

Move from the static test to the multi-year path

Change the assumptions

Target compulsory-levy ratio30%

Actually realised recurring annual savings€316bn

Transition/annual costs to finance€20bn

Additional proven recurring gains€0bn

GDP above 2025 baseline — mechanical sensitivity+0%

Gross reduction corresponding to target—

Room after deficit and transition—

Financing gap—

Static ratio reachable with available room—

Calculating…

The GDP slider is a sensitivity test, not a forecast. It does not model inflation, tax elasticities or behavioural reactions.

What the static calculation already establishes

43.6 → 30% at 2025 GDP€406.8bn

2025 deficit to close first€152.5bn

Room after €350bn savings and deficit€197.5bn

Remaining gap to 30% in static case€209.3bn

€350bn alone does not statically finance both today’s deficit and an immediate fall from 43.6% to 30% of GDP. The target therefore has to be sequenced and any growth, interest or simplification feedback proven before it is spent.

Fiscal reform simulator: how low can France go without recreating deficits?

A simulator that rejects unfunded promises

Change the assumptions

What the static calculation already establishes

Official sources and references