TAXATION · 13 MEASURES ·

Taxation: financial audit of 13 measures

A tax cut, the removal of a tax expenditure, fraud recovery and a public-procurement saving are different financial effects. This page separates them before consolidation.

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Taxation: financial audit of 13 measures | Delta-Sierra — Tax cuts, recovered revenue, reinvestment and budget savings remain separate.

Family inheritance: updated rule

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The fiscal lock

A tax cut is first a revenue loss. It becomes sustainable only when prior savings or actual additional revenue finance it. Conversely, a tax assessment is not yet cash collection.

INSEE measures compulsory levies at 43.6% of GDP in 2025. The 50% constitutional cap is therefore a safeguard; the strategic 30% target remains a separate conditional trajectory.

2025 levies43.6%of GDP · INSEE

2026 R&D tax credit€8.041bnestimated total cost

2025 tax audits€11.4bncash collected

Current inheritance€100,000allowance per child

Four rules before consolidation

Tax cuts. Gross revenue cost first; growth and employment feedback later, never assumed automatically.

Fraud. Detected, prevented, assessed, reassessed and collected are distinct metrics.

Reinvestment. A euro recovered and then reinvested does not improve the deficit by the same euro.

Local government. Removing a local tax must show who bears the revenue loss or compensation.

Source measure and later scenarios

The historical wording of measure 6.03 remains archived at €300,000 per child for traceability, but it is no longer the current strategic rule. now sets €1m per child, €500,000 for a qualifying blended-family child with the reference tax burden divided by three above the threshold, and €1m per sibling. The earlier lifetime-pot model is retained only as a methodological archive. Measure 6.04 keeps its separate historical capital-gains wording.

The thirteen measures, separated by financial nature

Measure	Plan effect	Current reference	Public consolidation	Simulator treatment
6.01 — Constitutional cap on compulsory levies at 50 percent Legal ceiling, not an automatic saving	Structural effect — Constitution	INSEE measures compulsory levies at 43.6% of GDP in 2025. A 50% constitutional ceiling would therefore not bind today; it would act as a safeguard against future increases.	Do not confuse the 50% legal ceiling with the separate long-run 30% strategic target. The first limits how high levies may rise; the second requires actual savings and a financing lock.	€0 automatic effect. Each tax cut is simulated separately and blocked if it recreates a structural deficit. Deduplication: 10.09, 10.01, 10.03
6.02 — Reduce employer social contributions on low wages Tax cut requiring financing	Household / employment gain — GM	Since 1 January 2026, the single degressive general reduction is already maximal at the minimum wage and tapers off up to below 3 minimum wages. Any further reduction therefore starts from an already broad relief system.	A contribution cut first reduces social-security revenue. Employment, net-wage and employer-cost effects must be microsimulated before any tax feedback is counted. No debt financing.	Gross revenue cost − observable fiscal feedback + employment effect; kept separate from gains to employers and workers. Deduplication: 6.01, 9.07, 10.01, 10.03
6.03 — Protect family inheritance: €1m per child, €500k for a qualifying blended-family child, €1m per sibling Inheritance-tax reduction	Household gain — GM	2026 law: €100,000 allowance per child and €15,932 per sibling. raises inheritance allowances by family relationship.	6.03 — Protect family inheritance: €1m per child, €500k for a qualifying blended-family child, €1m per sibling	microsimulation: current law versus direct child, qualifying blended-family child and sibling rules.
6.04 — Exempt real-estate capital gains after ten years Real-estate tax reduction	Household gain — GM	The current regime fully exempts income tax after more than 22 years of ownership and social levies after more than 30 years. Ten years would therefore accelerate exemption sharply.	The cost must be simulated using transactions, holding periods, gains, already exempt principal residences and any market-unlocking effect. The later fifteen-year strategic scenario is shown separately from the ten-year source measure.	Lost income-tax and social-levy revenue, adjusted for transaction-volume effects. Deduplication: 10.01, 10.03
6.05 — Spread development-tax payment over fifteen years Cash-flow / financing cost	Household cash-flow gain — GM	In 2026, the tax is declared within 90 days after completion; above €1,500 it can be paid in two instalments, at 90 days and nine months. Spreading it over fifteen years fundamentally changes local-government cash flow.	This is not a saving: it is implicit credit to the taxpayer, with financing, inflation, default and administration costs. For new housing, 6.05 and 6.13 cannot both apply to the same tax.	Present value of local receipts + administration + default; mutually exclusive with 6.13 for new housing. Deduplication: 6.13, 8.05
6.06 — Abolish the research tax credit for large companies Revenue from reducing tax expenditure	€5.5bn per year — revenue, level B	Budget documentation estimates the total cost of the research tax credit at €8.041bn in 2026. This is an absolute ceiling, but it does not by itself validate the €5.5bn attributed to large companies.	Before consolidation, a DGFiP breakdown is needed by company size, tax group, R&D spending band and credit actually used. Amounts redirected under 6.08 cannot simultaneously count as deficit reduction.	Gross revenue recovered − R&D behavioural effect − any 6.08 redirection. No double counting with 6.11. Deduplication: 6.07, 6.08, 6.11, 8.07, 8.08
6.07 — Reform the research tax credit for SMEs and mid-caps Tax reform requiring precise design	€2bn per year — revenue, level C	The total research tax credit is estimated at €8.041bn in 2026 and the innovation credit at €230m. A €2bn yield depends entirely on the rule chosen for SMEs and mid-caps and cannot be inferred from the total cost.	The website will require a parameterised scenario: rate, base, ceiling, group treatment, SME/mid-cap status and eligible spending. Depending on design, the measure may raise revenue, cost revenue or simply redistribute support.	Reform scenarios compared with current law; no automatic €2bn. Deduplication: 6.06, 6.08, 6.11, 8.07, 8.08
6.08 — Redirect savings toward public research Public reinvestment	Investment — IN	The Research and Higher Education mission represents more than €31bn in 2026 payment appropriations according to budget documentation. Redirecting recovered research-tax-credit revenue is new public-research spending.	Each euro allocated to 6.08 reduces by the same amount the net deficit benefit from 6.06/6.07, even if it improves scientific and economic potential.	Explicit investment spending linked to revenue actually recovered. Deduplication: 6.06, 6.07, 10.01, 10.03
6.09 — Fight tax fraud with artificial intelligence Incremental revenue, not total fraud	Net revenue — level C	In 2025, tax audits assessed €17.1bn in duties and penalties and DGFiP collected €11.4bn. This is the starting point: AI cannot claim as a gain amounts already detected or collected without it.	The model measures only the increment attributable to AI, net of false positives, litigation, IT and staffing costs. Assessed, collected and prevented amounts remain separate.	Causal additional cash collection − AI cost − audit cost − litigation. Deduplicated against 9.06. Deduplication: 2.13, 9.03, 9.05, 9.06, 9.07, 9.12, 10.03
6.10 — Fight social fraud with artificial intelligence Incremental recovery / loss prevention	Net revenue — level C	In 2025, nearly €3.1bn of social fraud was detected, prevented or reassessed. These concepts are heterogeneous and do not all equal cash collected. For example, Urssaf reassessed €1.503bn for undeclared work while collecting about €100m during the year.	The AI gain must be incremental to existing controls and split between prevented benefits, recovered contributions, overpayments, penalties and actual cash collection.	Prevented loss + additional cash collection − programme cost; no gross addition with 11.05. Deduplication: 9.03, 9.05, 9.07, 9.12, 11.03, 11.05
6.11 — Review poorly targeted tax expenditures Revenue from removing tax expenditures	Net revenue — level C	Budget documentation lists tax expenditures measure by measure. The 2026 budget bill already contained several removals and rationalisations; Delta-Sierra must therefore start from the 2026 inventory rather than an arbitrary aggregate percentage.	Each tax expenditure must have: budget cost, beneficiaries, objective, evaluation, behavioural effect, EU-law constraints and exit scenario. The research tax credit is removed from 6.11 when treated separately under 6.06/6.07.	Measure-by-measure sum after removing items already counted elsewhere and behavioural effects. Deduplication: 6.06, 6.07, 8.07, 8.08
6.12 — Cap profit margins on public procurement at 30 percent Procurement saving to be measured	€3bn–€5bn per year — direct budget saving, level C	The 30% figure appears in some procurement rules for matters unrelated to supplier profit margins, including advances or defence-contract subcontracting. It is not a general supplier-margin cap today.	Measure 6.12 directly overlaps 8.04 and must become one consolidated line. To verify €3–5bn, the margin definition must be specified, an open-book sample built, risk and competition considered, and actual purchase-price reductions measured.	Saving = counterfactual price − post-reform price − control costs; 6.12/8.04 counted once. Deduplication: 8.04, 9.14, 11.10, 11.12
6.13 — Abolish development tax on new housing Local-revenue cut / housing-cost reduction	Household gain — GM	Development tax is a local tax used in particular to finance public infrastructure required by development. Removing it on new housing lowers project cost but reduces local-government revenue unless compensated.	The website separates buyer/developer gain, lost local revenue, any state compensation and construction response. For housing exempt under 6.13, the 6.05 payment-spreading measure no longer applies.	Lost local revenue − any additional activity/revenue; mutually exclusive with 6.05 on new housing. Deduplication: 6.05, 8.05, 10.03

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