Hypothesis
Included in impact assessment, never used to trigger a permanent tax cut.
PUBLIC FINANCE · 30% TARGET ·
Growth and feedback effects: include them without manufacturing a promise
A method for recognising positive economic feedback without double counting or treating it as guaranteed.
Growth must not be counted twice
A reform may raise activity, but the gross saving and an arbitrary growth multiplier cannot both be treated as guaranteed revenue. therefore classifies feedback effects as hypothesis, provisionally observed or certified.
Observed
Revenue or employment moves, but causality and persistence still need testing.
Certified
An independent audit accepts a recurring amount usable for the next step.
Reversible
If the effect disappears, the next step pauses rather than recreating a deficit.
Tax elasticity must be documented
Revenue responses differ by tax. The future model should not use one universal elasticity without empirical support.