Factors that may improve the path
Employment, investment, broader tax bases, lower debt interest, productivity and GDP growth.
PUBLIC FINANCE · 30% TARGET ·
30% target: static case, dynamic case and an anti-promise rule
Separate robust orders of magnitude from potential growth effects that are not yet demonstrated.
Static analysis sets the constraint; dynamics can change the path
The static case holds GDP and selected revenue shares constant. It deliberately shows the scale of transformation required before any feedback effect is booked.
Factors that may worsen it
Transition costs, lower-than-expected revenue, behavioural responses, additional core-state needs or overstated savings.
Anti-promise rule
No dynamic effect is treated as guaranteed financing before observation or independent validation.