PUBLIC FINANCE · 30% TARGET ·
€193bn, €316bn or €350bn: how much is really left for tax cuts?
Three Plan scenarios confronted with the 2025 deficit and the 30% tax target.
Three bounds, not a magic number
The source Plan reports recurring steady-state savings of €193–316bn a year, with an upper case of €350bn including some indirect and exceptional gains. therefore does not treat €350bn as guaranteed.
| Scenario | Savings | After closing 2025 deficit | Static levy ratio if all remaining room cuts taxes | Gap to 30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan recurring low case | €193bn | €40.5bn | 42.25% | €366.3bn |
| Plan recurring high case | €316bn | €163.5bn | 38.13% | €243.3bn |
| Upper case incl. indirect / exceptional gains | €350bn | €197.5bn | 37.00% | €209.3bn |
This table assumes zero transition cost to show the theoretical ceiling. The simulator can add transition costs.
Policy consequence
The 30% target becomes a step-by-step trajectory: deficit first, then labour and production taxes, then further steps only after actual savings are certified.