PUBLIC FINANCE · 30% TARGET ·
AMECO structural balance: the right compass, not an automatic criminal-law truth
Integrate the European structural-balance series into the fiscal rule while recognising potential-output revisions.
Methodology and machine-readable provenance
Structural balance is the right target, but it is not a simple accounting number
The European Commission’s AMECO database publishes series UBLGAPS, the structural balance of general government as a percentage of potential GDP. The Spring 2026 release was updated on 3 June 2026.
Even the visible maximum remains negative, showing the depth of the structural imbalance. Yet potential GDP is estimated and revisable, so this number should not mechanically trigger criminal punishment.
Legal consequence: criminal accountability should target deliberate falsification, concealment or circumvention of a certified rule, not a later econometric revision.