BUDGET · STRESS TEST · ACCOUNTABILITY
2026-2027: would the current trajectory pass the new fiscal test?
Placing the Commission forecast against the future balanced-budget rule and its necessary convergence period.
The test is not only historical
The European Commission's Spring 2026 forecast projects a French general-government deficit of 5.1% of GDP in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027 under unchanged policies, with debt reaching 120.2% of GDP in 2027.
This is not a Delta-Sierra forecast. It is the Commission's 21 May 2026 unchanged-policy projection and can change with new measures.
Transition matters
A constitutional rule cannot erase a 5% deficit overnight. The organic act therefore needs a binding convergence period that is neither immediately impossible nor indefinitely postponable.